Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Live-blogging Don Drummond at the PROFIT 100 Summit

Don Drummond is senior vp and chief economist at TD Bank. He is now telling the PROFIT 100 conference that Canada has too many eggs in the US basket (75% of our exports go there).
The US has a declining rate of global productivity growth, although its productivity growth is still twice that of Canada (we're below 1%).
We averaged 2% annual productivity growth in the 1960s.

The good news is, he does see an end to the recession. After a negative second and third quarter in the U.S., he says the fourth quarter should be positive. He sees 1.6% annual growth in 2010 (and 2.5% growth in Canada).
"We will have a cyclical bounce-back in Canada in 2010," says Drummond, although he notes that growth will be slower than the previous average levels of 3.4%.
Did you know Canada was the only industrialized country to gain manufacturing jobs in the 1990s? Drummond explains "that was just a temporary head-fake from the undervalued level of the Canadian dollar."

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