Don Drummond is senior vp and chief economist at TD Bank. He is now telling the PROFIT 100 conference that Canada has too many eggs in the US basket (75% of our exports go there).The US has a declining rate of global productivity growth, although its productivity growth is still twice that of Canada (we're below 1%).
We averaged 2% annual productivity growth in the 1960s.
The good news is, he does see an end to the recession. After a negative second and third quarter in the U.S., he says the fourth quarter should be positive. He sees 1.6% annual growth in 2010 (and 2.5% growth in Canada).
"We will have a cyclical bounce-back in Canada in 2010," says Drummond, although he notes that growth will be slower than the previous average levels of 3.4%.
Did you know Canada was the only industrialized country to gain manufacturing jobs in the 1990s? Drummond explains "that was just a temporary head-fake from the undervalued level of the Canadian dollar."
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